So things are not looking good for this weekend’s attempt to climb Baker. Baker, by the way, is another of those feature names that sticks only because it’s an easy one to pronounce and was bequeathed to the mountain by a European. Let’s call the mighty volcano, which would be visible from where I lie on the living-room couch but for the peak of the garage and the neighbor’s tree, Kulshan, at least for the remainder of this post.
Kulshan is sitting in an upper-level trough, which will be followed by an upper-level low and another trough. Plenty of low pressure to go around these next few days. The NWS says up to a few inches of snow will fall on Wednesday and up to another few on Thursday. Mountain-forecast.com has around 10″ Thursday, 15″ Friday and lighter snow continuing through Sunday.
There’s not much more detailed or reliable info on Kulshan’s forecast available as far as I can tell. Upper-level lows are apparently difficult to forecast and result in snow at altitude and otherwise very inconsistent conditions. Or that’s my simplistic understanding, anyway.
Were we on a distant expedition, we’d sit tight, move up when we could and await a break in the wx. Maybe that break will come Sunday, and maybe the snow that falls before then will be in good shape. Or maybe it won’t. So do we try it, possibly to spend a sodden weekend below 6000′ and lessen the chance that we get the group together later to try again? Or do we make other plans and try to align schedules for another go in a few weeks, possibly to spend a dry weekend under high clouds when we could have walked on top of Kulshan?
Hopefully the forecast becomes a little more clear in the next day or two. Until then we wait and look at forecasts (like this tabular version and the discussion, both of which I forgot to include in my last post). It’s too late to do an effective high-pressure dance.